NOAA revises hurricane predictions, says Atlantic will have belo

NOAA revises hurricane predictions, says Atlantic will have below average season

(RNN) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration rolled back the forecast on how active the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be.

“Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May,” NOAA said in a posted news release.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now says that the season likely will be 60 percent below normal. In May, the center predicted the likelihood of a below-normal season at 25 percent.

The revised forecast also says that the likelihood of near-normal season is at 30 percent, and above normal is at 10 percent, down from 35.

This means we’re likely to see nine to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or more), four to seven hurricanes (winds between 74 mph and 110 mph), and zero to two major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

Already in 2018, there have been four named storms; Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby, which is currently fading in the north Atlantic.

However, this does not mean people should relax their preparation for a storm – because it only takes one to cause damage. Plus, this is not a landfall forecast, NOAA said.

Reasons for the revised forecast include the fact that El Nino looks like it might develop this fall, and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean are cooler than average. 

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